[Eurasia] EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - TIER 3
| Email-ID | 5424835 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-06-19 00:30:29 |
| From | marko.papic@stratfor.com |
| To | eurasia@stratfor.com, nate.hughes@stratfor.com |
| List-Name | eurasia@stratfor.com |
Attached Files
| # | Filename | Size |
|---|---|---|
| 125073 | 125073_EUROPE ANALYTICAL GUIDANCE - Third Tier.doc | 49.5KiB |
GREECE
Security
- Greece has a very complex security situation, there are more anarchist groups in Greece than islands in its archipelagos. Let’s make sure we know exactly what is going on, always report every attack and track down exactly who claimed responsibility if possible.
- Right-wing movements in Greece are on the rise as well, particularly in anti-migrant violence (Muslims and Albanians being the main targets).
- Protests/unions/riots, standard stuff as across the region. In Greece it is important because Karamanlis is not at all popular. Watch for left-right discontentment… This is the key split in Greece and it is very violent.
Political Issues
- The key issue is how long can Karamanlis survive. Watch for opposition to be rallying around PASOK.
International Relations
- Relations with Turkey are something to watch. Anything that has to do with security in the Mediterranean is important, also anything to do with Cyprus.
- Dispute with Macedonia over the name is something we need to follow, although it is not something that will make or break Greece.
- Greece-Serbia relations, they are usually good but let’s see if anything changes.
Economics
- Greece is country key for shipping. We need to watch out for any status updates on the shipping fleet and what is going on in that industry.
- Greece is essentially in the midst of an economic meltdown. We need all and every piece of information coming out of here. We need to know exactly what is going on and whether/when Greece applies for IMF loan. We may very well witness an absolute economic collapse of a eurozone country.
- Please watch carefully for any sign of bond auctions or syndicated bond sales. Greece has a lot of debt, how they pop may be determined on what happens to their debt.
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου